Market Trend Summary
Bitcoin is expected to follow a upswing-retracement-recovery pattern: rising from the current $104,000 to a peak of $112,500 on June 17 before pulling back, dropping to $107,500 on the 18th, and testing $103,400 on the 20th before stabilizing. On the 23rd, it will retest the key support level of $99,600 and rebound quickly, climbing back to $106,400 by the 27th. Overall, volatility is significant, but the key psychological support of $100,000 remains solid.
Key Supporting Evidence
Seasonal Effect
Historically, the Bitcoin market has exhibited certain seasonal patterns, with reduced activity and lower trading volumes during the summer months. Bitcoin's average June return is -0.39% (compared to SPY +0.9% and VXX -5.4%), indicating that the market often faces corrective pressure mid-year.
FOMC Policy Uncertainty
Currently, market uncertainty over whether the Fed will continue raising interest rates or maintain current levels at the FOMC meeting is high, providing a macro backdrop for Bitcoin's "rally-then-dip" trend. Volatility tends to increase around the meeting, but prices may gradually stabilize and rebound once the decision is announced.
Mining Costs
The current average mining cost is $93,000, with a mining cost-to-price ratio of 0.85 (price exceeds production cost). From a supply-demand perspective, sustained profitability for miners attracts more participants, increasing Bitcoin supply and exerting downward pressure on prices. From a valuation standpoint, Bitcoin's current price appears relatively high.
BTC Price Forecast Model
This quantitative model integrates cross-asset analysis (e.g., Treasury bonds, gold, S&P 500 VIX) with BTC’s historical trends to project a 15-day price trajectory (June 12 – June 27).
Projected Prices
Cross-Asset Performance (May 2025)
U.S. Treasury Yields: The 30-year yield surged to 5.15% (2023 high) on May 22 before retreating to 4.951%, ending +5.5bps for the month. Drivers: U.S. fiscal deficit fears, Moody’s downgrade (May 16), and debt concerns from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Gold: Opened at $3,288.14/oz, closed at $3,290.40 (+0.07%), with a 9.5% swing ($3,120.64–$3,434.79).
BTC: Rose from ~$85,700 to a record $111,800 (May 22), then settled at ~$105,700, up 23.5% for May. Catalysts: U.S. GENIUS Act, Hong Kong’s stablecoin law, institutional inflows, and macro tailwinds (weaker USD, bond sell-off).
S&P 500 & VIX: S&P 500 rallied 6.15% (5,569.06→5,911.69), its strongest May since 1990. Tech (AI/data centers) and financials led gains. VIX dipped 6% but spiked 15% intra-month post-Moody’s downgrade.
Key Takeaways:
Treasuries: Long-end yields face upward pressure amid fiscal risks.
Gold: Long-term bullish (central bank demand), but near-term volatility expected.
BTC: "Safe-haven" appeal grows amid USD weakness and bond turmoil.